December 31, 2007
What was I thinking?
Now that the regular season is over, let's see how I did in my preseason predictions. Here's my worst call:
"The 49ers are my pick as the NFL’s out-of-nowhere team this season. They’re on the way up, and they’ll
make a bigger leap than anyone expects this year by winning the NFC West and taking the top seed in the NFC playoffs."
Oops. I also kind of predicted that the Ravens would win the AFC North: "The Ravens will still be better than
the Steelers this year, but the gap will narrow."
Glad I was wrong on that one. But I was sort of right about
the Steelers' offensive line being a concern: "There might be a few kinks to work out before the unit jells."
Gee, ya' think? Actually, someone get Kinks lead singer Ray Davies on the phone. He could probably do just as
well as some of the guys on the offensive line have done this season.
OK, take a couple more minutes to laugh
at me. I was right about a few things other than the Steelers' regular-season record, like my assessment of kick returner
Allen Rossum: "I wish I could get excited about that move, but Rossum is 31 and a little past his prime."
Nice
get, Mike Tomlin. Overall, I think Tomlin's done a pretty good job in his rookie season as a head coach. The worst thing
about him is the guys he's brought in, like Rossum and center Sean Mahan, one of the culprits on the offensive line.
I was right about the top three seeds in the AFC. I just had the order wrong. I thought it would be Chargers, Patriots
and Colts. I turned out to be Patriots, Colts and Chargers. Then I thought it would be Ravens winning the AFC North and the
Broncos getting the No. 5 seed, with the Steelers getting in as the No. 6 seed.
I wasn't close on the NFC.
After infamously picking the 49ers to get the No. 1 seed, I had the Cowboys at No. 2, the Saints at No. 3 and the Bears at
No. 4. Yikes. I had the Seahawks and Panthers as the wild-card teams.
If you're scoring at home, that's
two playoff teams right in the NFC and four in the AFC.
My prediction for a Battle of the Retread Coaches in the Super
Bowl, the Cowboys' Wade Phillips vs. the Chargers' Norv Turner, could still happen. But that would likely involve
the Chargers winning in New England. Unfortunately, I don't see anyone doing that.
December 27, 2007
Jag-ged little pill
It's looking like the Steelers are going to get the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. The only way they can get
the No. 3 seed is if they beat the Ravens on Sunday and the Chargers lose to the JaMarcus Russell-led Raiders.
The
Steelers might rest some aching starters on Sunday. I say the Steelers' health, especially Ben Roethlisberger's, is
more important than getting the No. 3 seed. I wouldn't mind seeing Charlie Batch playing the entire game Sunday if Roethlisberger
needs to rest his ankle. Without Willie Parker, it's all going to ride on Big Ben's shoulders in the playoffs.
You could say that getting the No. 3 seed would allow the Steelers to avoid Jacksonville in the first round and New
England until the AFC championship. Well, if the Steelers want to win the Super Bowl, they'll have to beat the Patriots
at some point. And they can restore some pride by beating Jacksonville and avenging their only home loss of the season.
So if Mike Tomlin wants to rest some players on Sunday, he should. The Steelers shouldn't try to duck the Jaguars
and avoid the Patriots for as long as possible. This is the playoffs, and you have to beat good teams.
December 19, 2007
Gutcheck time
Call me crazy, and I hope I'm not jinxing things, but I envision a workmanlike win by the Steelers on Thursday night.
I know they've had trouble winning on the road, but this could be their easiest road assignment of the season. The Rams
are 3-11. The Steelers lost on the road to the Jets, who are also 3-11, but the Jets play in the vastly superior AFC. The
Rams are 3-11 in the NFC. Big difference.
The Steelers' two other concerning road losses were are Arizona and
at Denver. Both teams are 6-8. We know Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt had a trunk full of files on the Steelers' tendencies,
and Denver is never an easy place to win.
The Steelers control their own destiny. They win their last two, they
win the AFC North. If they can take care of business Thursday, they'll have 10 days to prepare for the season finale in
Baltimore. The Ravens (4-10) have gone from almost derailing the Patriots' perfect season to becoming the first team to
lose to the Dolphins (although the Steelers weren't too far from doing that themselves). But with a chance to get revenge
for their 38-7 humiliation on Nov. 5 and possibly knock the Steelers out of the playoffs, the Ravens will be licking their
chops.
The Steelers haven't won in Baltimore since 2002. But the bottom line is this: If they can't win
these last two games on the road against a couple of crappy teams, they don't belong in the playoffs.
12:02 pm | link
December 12, 2007
Aftermath
Since writing this week's column, a couple of things about Sunday's game have come to light. Both kind of support
my thesis that Mike Tomlin has a little learning to do as a head coach.
We all know now that Anthony Smith was
jawing at the Patriots during the game. Now it sounds like he was prodded by the press into making the guarantee, and Tomlin
can't control what his players are saying or doing 24/7. But he sure as hell can control what's going on during the
game, and he should have put on a lid on Smith.
Without the benefit of numerous replays on the giant screen at
Gillette Stadium, I didn't realize that the muffed punt was sort of incidental. It was a short kick that happened to bounce
off William Gay's leg. It was a bad break, and Gay is a rookie. But players on special teams need to know there the ball
is at all times.
That brings me to Allen Rossum, who along with Sean Mahan are two Tomlin guys who just aren't
working out for the Steelers.
Enough looking back. Let's worry about a team the Steelers actually can beat.
Jacksonville is on the way.
December 8, 2007
Health check
Santonio Holmes and Marvel Smith are scheduled to start Sunday against the Patriots, but Troy Polamalu is doubtful.
If you gave me a choice between Holmes and Polamalu playing Sunday, I'd choose Holmes. He can stretch a defense.
He exit in the fourth quarter against the Jets had an impact. A lot of the Jets' sacks came after Holmes was out. At least
one of those sacks might not have happened if Ben Roethlisberger had the speedy Holmes to throw to. If they had Holmes in
overtime, the Steelers might have been able to try the play that beat the Bengals in OT at the end of last season.
Polamalu's had an off year. The secondary did fine against the Bengals without him. But the Steelers will need him back
eventually. For now, he'll have to be content in his role of looking scary on the sideline. He looks very cloak-and-dagger
with that hood casting a shadow over his bearded face.
Speaking of injuries, I updated my most recent home-page
column. Originally, I said it looked like Polamalu will play. Also, I had to make a correction. I had said that four of the
last eight games between the Steelers and Patriots were playoff games. Actually, four of their last nine meetings have come
in the playoffs. Sorry.
The updated and corrected version of my "Blast from the past" column was posted
just after 4 a.m. on Saturday. Happy reading.
4:05 am | link
December 7, 2007
Talking the talk
The Patriots have one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Tom Brady. They have one of
the best receivers of all-time in Randy Moss. They have one of the best coaches of all-time in Bill Belichick.
Now they have bulletin-board material.
Thanks
a lot, Anthony Smith.
By guaranteeing a win over the Patriots on Sunday, the Steelers safety lit a fire under a 12-0 juggernaut. It's
like teasing the bear at the zoo.
Maybe Smith hasn't been around long enough to realize that Patriots coach Bill Belichick can take a burp or a
sneeze from an opposing player or coach and turn it into bulletin-board material. He's that good. This is just too easy
for him.
This isn't the first time the Steelers have run off their mouth before a big game against the Patriots. Before
the 2001 AFC championship game, Steelers quarterback Kordell Stewart talked about how he was looking forward to hanging out
with his buddies in New Orleans, which is where the Super Bowl was being held. We all know how that turned out.
I'm not totally surprised
this came out of the mouth of Smith, who has shown a lack of discipline on the field. He had a facemask penalty Sunday against
the Bengals, and if memory serves he was hot-dogging during his breakout game last season against the Panthers.
When asked about Smith's
comments, Patriots safety Rodney Harrison said he had never heard of him. I'm sure he has, but his point is that Smith
isn't exactly the guy who should be making such a bold prediction. He's a second-year player who hasn't even started
for half a season. It was one thing when Joey Porter and Lee Flowers used to say this stuff. They were accomplished players
who could back up their words. Anthony Smith? Until you do something, shut up.
Well, there is the possibility the Steelers
could win Sunday. If that happens, then I'll shut up.
December 2, 2007
Pregame jitters
I'm getting nervous about this one. The Bengals are a team on the upswing, and the banged up Steelers haven't
won a game convincingly since their 38-7 win over the Ravens on Nov. 5. I'll gladly accept a dramatic win like the one
they had over the Browns on Nov. 11. The Steelers just can't lay an egg a week before the showdown against the Patriots.
Can somebody calm me down?
1:42 am | link
